October 8th, 2009 - New Page Launch!
Visit the page: www.traduccioneshonduras.com
September 4th, 2009
Iniciativa Ciudadana
Esto no es una broma, la participación democratica de un pueblo siempre debe tomarse con el mayor grado de seriedad.
En estos momentos, necesitamos que el mundo escuche que es lo que los Hondureños queremos. La plantilla es la misma que Zelaya usó para justificar la Consulta Popular que se efectuaría el mismo 28 de Junio en el que Honduras ejerció su Soberanía. Esta Iniciativa Ciudadana esta amparada en la Ley de Participación Ciudadana, lo cual simboliza, que las leyes se pueden usar para bien y que eso es lo que queremos en Honduras.
1) Impriman esta hoja, llenenla, y entreguenla a cualquier funcionario público electo por el pueblo.
2) Saquenle copias, repartanlas, haganlas disponibles a la mayor cantidad de gente disponible.
3) No obligue a nadie a llenar esta Iniciativa.
Un abrazo a Honduras!
Baje el archivo para imprimir aqui:
| iniciativa_dia_nacional_soberana.pdf |
August 5th, 2009
State Department's Letter to Senator Lugar
Zelaya Interview with Argentina Newspaper La Nacion
This link takes you to the original article, in Spanish.
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1152875
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July 21st, 2009 – La Nación Argentina
"I’m starting my return to my country.” - Zelaya
Deposed by a coup d'etat on June 28, the Honduran president, Manuel Zelaya, has been travelling in exile over three weeks across America.
Now, from Managua he is preparing the final assault to retake power if the de facto government of Roberto Micheletti does not accept his return tomorrow, after the expiry of the deadline given by the mediator of the conflict, the president of Costa Rica, Oscar Arias.
In a lengthy telephone conversation with La Nacion, Zelaya said that Honduras is already living a "civil war". The ousted president has instructed his followers to move towards the border of the country to take him and lead him to Tegucigalpa, in "a triumphant entry”.
Without much hope that Micheletti concedes power to him, Zelaya will move to Honduras at any time and from any border point from tomorrow, but does not discard the possibility of finding a diplomatic solution for a return.
-The roundtable in San José is about to fail. Has the diplomatic route been exhausted?
There will be no reunion in San Jose. The mediator [the Costa Rican President Oscar Arias] gave the coup regime 72 hours to accept the mandate of the Organization of American States (OAS), ie the return of the legitimate president. Arias gave the coup regime the deadline so they could understand and comply with that mandate.
Some of your allies in the region have been critical of Arias mediating. Do you think the mediation was positive?
We accept that mediation and also agreed with the seven points that President Arias suggested as a starting point for an agreement. But those who have broken the dialogue are the coup-plotters, rejecting the main point raised by Arias: Presidential restitution. With this rejection, the negotiators have stupidly offended the mediator and have earned worldwide condemnation. The OAS and United States have ratified the seven points. The coup plotters have run out of arguments.
-Your delegation agreed to discuss the seven points proposed by Arias, including calls to desist from convening a consultation to reform the Constitution. Would you be willing to accept that point?
The proposal was not discussed because of the rejection of the Micheletti committee. Everything in life has a solution, even death, if you are a believer. We are willing to discuss the convening of such consultation. My administration is center-leftist, with broad tolerance levels. But the Honduran people deserve to make the changes necessary so that they are no longer choked by the oligarchy, that process of change that is occurring in Latin America should follow soon in Honduras. It is not a personal whim, because I am not going to be affected by this change.
-The United States role in the crisis was criticized from some quarters. Do you think that Obama's government has been sufficiently robust against the coup?
I am very satisfied with the role of President Obama. He has been very consistent in his position condemning the coup and to support the legitimately elected president at the polls. In the same way it has been expressed by Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, which I appreciate. The ambassador in Tegucigalpa, Hugo Llorens, the assistant secretary of state for Latin America, Thomas Shannon, the Obama adviser Dan Restrepo… They are supporting us. It’s an entirely different thing when it come to the position of the group of hawks in the era of [George W.] Bush. People like Otto Reich [former Secretary of State for the region] and others that are authentic coup-plotters.
-You have announced that you will return to Honduras at any cost, if ultimately there is no agreement tomorrow. When are you preparing the return for?
I'm already starting my return to Honduras. I'm going to do it on Wednesday thorugh any of the borders with Honduras has with Guatemala, El Salvador or Nicaragua. Enter through one of those points by land, or perhaps somewhere air, or perhaps because of the maritime boundary. We have a wide border and large areas of jungle as well, the possibilities are many.
- Are you not afraid of being arrested when setting foot in Honduras?
-The Honduran people are moving to the borders so that when the 72 hour period has ended, we can enter through any of the border that I have mentioned. The entire country is mobilizing now.
- Are you confident that your return will be a success?
Only God can prevent my return. And I can assure you that God is not with the coup, God is on our side. My entry to Tegucigalpa will be a triumphant one.
But you have many enemies in Honduras: politicians, the judiciary, business leaders, the military’s high command?
I’ve been in politics for more than 30 years . I have many allies, with lots of friends who know me and cherish me. The error of the coup-regime was to think I was just a puppet-leader. It is wrong for two reasons, because they also believed that the international community would not condemn the coup.
Do you absolutely dismiss negotiation as a way out of this conflict?Look, the de facto government is not going to yield. Why do you think they dealt the coup? The group is a revolutionary oligarchy that has exploited the country for decades and is not planning to concede that power now that it has won it in this way. But the diplomatic way should never be underestimated, there is always a window open.
-Arias warned of the possibility of a civil war if there was no agreement?
The civil war in Honduras has already begun. It is already mounted, and there is blood running through the memory of the coup regime. Anyone that is in Honduras can see that this clash has already started, this civil war
The de facto government is still thinking about bringing you to the courts for abuse of power, treason, corruption?
It is curious: the criminals are judging the legitimate governments. It's the world upside down. Any act of force is null, what our Constitution says, and I was overthrown in a coup. They want to do to me what they did to Galileo Galilei in the Middle Ages for wanting to tell the truth.
In the proposal Arias put forward, he spoke of amnesty for all.
In Honduras, the rule of law has been broken. Judges of the [Supreme Court] are appointed by Congress, but they are all coup-plotters. I have no power to grant amnesty, I am president of the Republic. The coup is not going to give them a prize, they’ll have to go home and then we’ll see.
-Your term ends in January 2010. The election is scheduled for November 29. Would you be willing to move the election to a sooner date?
I have no problem with that, if they want it, we can have them tomorrow.
Summary and Statements
Press Conference in San Jose, Costa Rica
July 19th, 2009
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Carlos Lopez Contreras, Micheletti Commission
· I am sorry Mr. President, but we find the proposals you have presented unacceptable. · In my opinion, the mediation has been unable to comprehend that the restoration of Manuel Zelaya to power goes against the rule of law of Honduras and we consider it an act of intrusion in the internal affairs of Honduras. · The counter-proposal we presented was conceived under a legal framework and under the rule of law of Honduras. · I want to remind, that we were told by President Arias that the proposals could be debated… · The legal body that removed Zelaya from power, cannot in my opinion, become an accomplice of those governments in America that want to defend impunity. · My mission as representing a small and humble country is to say I’m sorry, your proposal is unacceptable, especially its first point.
Rixi Moncada: Zelaya Commission
· First I want to clarify that Zelaya’s statements regarding his wish to continue the process of consultation were issued before president Arias 7 point proposal was presented, so we consider that issue to be at rest. · We lament that the commission that comes in the name of the de facto regime product of a military coup has ignored the resolutions of international organizations to restore Manuel Zelaya to power. · We lament that this commission has also rejected the proposal set forth by president Arias, which is just further evidence of the inflexibility of the coup regime in the face of what the international community has called a military coup. · We announce as a commission that this dialogue with the de facto commission has ended, and it has ended today because of their inflexibility. However we want to reiterate to the mediator and to the international community and international organizations our availability and we will stay attentive to any actions that President Arias may take in the following hours. · We will keep fighting from wherever we are to stop the repressive actions of the coup regime in Honduras.
Oscar Arias, Mediator:
· I am sorry to announce that this dialogue has ended without a solution. · I want to thank both commissions for placing their trust in me…such big trust that I dare say I do not deserve it. · I will take 72 more hours to work hardly on this problem to see if a solution to this conflict can be found. · Because the alternative to dialogue…. o There are guns in Honduras, what happens when a citizen fires upon a soldier? o What happens when a soldier fires on a civilian? o There could be a civil war, bloodshed and therefore my conscience will not allow me to abandon the efforts to solve this conflict. · I hope that in these 72 hours I can get my 7-point proposal accepted, including the first point, which is the essence of my proposal. · Perhaps with that effort we will avoid blood from being spilt.
Thoughts on the Recession : Erosion.
There seems to be a misunderstanding about the recession. Some people seem to think that this is just a cyclical thing like our previous recessions. What they don't seem to understand is that this economic crisis has been in an incubation period since the creation of monetary policy.
The Financial Structure of the United States can be thought of as a house of cards. At the bottom is the American Consumer and his consumption for goods. These goods can either be durable (like a house or a car) or they can be everyday things like iPods, cigarettes and a McDonald's hamburger.
Consumption is the foundation of all economies and this should not be seen as something bad. The level that rests on top of the consumer base is the housing market. Construction of houses, buildings, residential projects create so much employment that it is seen as the most important economic indicator of our days. If something is wrong with the housing sector we can be sure that it's time to stop building houses. When we stop building houses, the construction workers lose their jobs. When they lose their jobs, they lose their incomes and when they lose their incomes they slow down consumption. When consumption decreases, GDP decreases. Now, it's obvious that if there were too many construction companies when this happens, some will go bankrupt and some will just fall on hard times. The ones that go bankrupt were the ones that were less efficient and therefore they were purged from the market in the recession. So far so good.
In this simple model, we can think of the next story of cards as the banking system. Consumers put their money into banks, and the banks loan the money to the construction companies. The banks also lend money to people who want to buy homes. In our simple model, when people fall into hard times, they skip a mortgage payment here and there and the banks reflect this by posting losses in their financial reports. This all takes time because banks don't report missed payments as losses. They would rather refinance a mortgage in favor of a client defaulting on their loan. Only when they default on their loan do banks report their losses.
Now, the model is going to get a bit more complex but it's necessary for us to understand what is going on:
The house of cards that has been built would be pretty stable if it stopped right there, but it doesn't.
Let's build another story even higher up. There are banks that don't deal with consumers at all. To understand what they do is to understand the very crux of this Econalypse.
These banks buy individual mortgages from the simple Mom & Pop banks that we all know. This means that even though a homeowner is still paying their mortgage to their bank, the stream of money is going to the bank that bought their mortgage.
I'll explain this through an example: I buy 3 mortgages. Your mortgage is just one of them, the other two belong to the neighbors on either side of your house. I clump these mortgages together into a single package and wrap it up into a nice package. I call one of my banker friends and say: "Hey, I have a nice financial asset here, it's made up of a single income stream. You can collect the money from these 3 people every month or you can just sell it to someone else after you buy it. Also, you can clump it up with other
Update soon.
Man, the news just keeps piling on. The world seems to be in hyperdrive mode. Failing markets, falling oil, political oustings and New Energy ideas every day.
I found that I'll post the articles somewhat early in the day, then I have to digest what they all mean in order to make a coherent compilation. So, there will probably be an update later today.
Thanks for reading.
Distorted Market: Oil, Bankruptcy and Emerging Markets.
The Economic Crisis has lowered worldwide demand for Oil. China, Japan and India are all looking at lower demands for oil which means that if there is an oversupply in the market the price will fall. The market already reflects that, this past July, A barrel of Crude was peaking at $147 per barrel. Today, its just under $55.
"That's awesome, right!?" Um, yes and no. Yes for the short run, no for the long run. The market price should follow the actual demand for a commodity. We don't have a perfectly efficient system of information and so that's an impossibility. The market system is efficient enough to closely follow the actual demand.
In just under five months the market price for a barrel of crude has decreased by 62%. This is a good example of a distortion in the market. Allow me to walk you through it:
Global demand falls, and the market reacts. It reacts nervously and in an exaggerated way, this is because everyone is scared shitless about the economy. Let me rephrase that, everyone that is still in the market and playing the speculation game is scared shitless. So Oil falls 62% in 4 months. This leads to the producer's response. Iran's OPEC Governor says that OPEC should cut production to bring Oil back to a healthy price. This healthy price is of course, set by a cartel, and it happens to be around $70-$100 dollars (by the way, Cartels are Illegal in the U.S). Iran's OPEC Governor also says that they're in talks to Oil Producing Nations that are non-members so that they may also cut production. If these talks are successful, we should hear less from that imbecile Chavez and his attempts to buy Latin America out by creating state-wide corruption orgies through cheap-oil aid programs.
To say that Global Demand is falling is technically correct but it makes people think that demand is actually growing negatively, that is to say, shrinking. We haven't hit that point yet. The International Energy Agency forecasts that demand will rise by .4% in 2009. So we're about half a percentage point away from actually having a real market surplus that drives the real price of oil down. The problem makes a great example of why we find ourselves in this mess. We're not betting on the present real conditions of the commodity markets, we're betting on their futures. That is acceptable to a point, but in the current state of uncertainty it only creates more volatility. Bloomberg also reports on someone betting that oil will hit $30 a barrel. It probably won't slide all the way down to $30, but that doesn't matter because as soon as it falls just a bit more these put-options seems like a more realistic bet. They appreciate in value and someone can make a quick buck. This is called arbitrage. The concept that you can make money because of an inefficiency in the market. In school they teach us to think under a framework where these opportunities are hard to come by, but they are obviously not. Meanwhile...
AIG has set aside about 500 Million dollars in deferred salaries for it top-employees. Are they talking about top-employees like Todd at Wendy's employee of the month? Or is it top-employee in another sense? Say like a Chief Financial Officer, perhaps? Or to pay for a brainstorming session in a luxurious Arizona resort for their "top-employees"? That's a relatively small figure though. It's just half a billion dollars. They got $150 of those. Billion dollars I mean...from the bailout. You see America is so cool that its legislators don't have to attach strings to the Bailout money. Europe did it, but we all know how tight all those British asses are. They thought it might be a good idea to tell their institutions that they could only get the money only if they promised not throw a big party with it...hmm now that I think of it, that's actually smart.
In the meantime, here, in the American Dream we have around 5,000 people filing for bankruptcy every single business day. And that number is almost certainly going to rise. 'Skyrocket' might be a more accurate word, but I'm not here to speculate.
I like my news reading like I like my coffee. Black but with enough milk and sugar to keep it light and sweet. That's why I read Sci/Tech news and renewable energy stuff. Out of this entire mess, there's companies that are coming out with their own ideas that need investment and as the old market breaks down, our reliance on oil seems to be more of a self created straight-jacket and not a reality.
The amount of infrastructure that will be needed to make this transition a reality is going to be monumental. It will create jobs at an astonishing rate and everyone that can keep a roof over their heads long enough to attend a training program on how to install solar panels will have a job available to them. That's an oversimplification of course, but if we want to understand the world we have to do so in manageable chunks of information.
These are the streams of information from where I understand my world. This blog is about how I connect it and paint a coherent picture for myself. Streams become a river, and a river flows into an ocean. Welcome to my river. Welcome to my flow.
11/17/08: The Launch: A Small Introduction and the First Post.
Hi! My name is Hector and I am an International Student. I hail from the tropics, Honduras to be precise.
In January of 2005 I stepped out of the MSN Airport into the coldest weather I had ever experienced. Ok, ok, I had lived in Switzerland prior to this, but I think Wisconsin is still colder than Switzerland.
I've been studying here for the past four years. I've been blessed to have had this opportunity. The third world is very different. Carrying that as a part of my identity has given me a unique perspective, this perspective that I now want to share. This will be a blog. It will be about my take on the world and how I see the flow of our collective consciousness. I've chunked it up into the news articles that catch my eye from day to day. Then I'll write what I think about that. I wont make any attempt to keep it objective or partial because that would be hyprocritical, I'm just another human being.
Here we go:
First Day
If by some wild coincidence you are reading this on the day of its launch, Welcome!
The Blah Blog is a site that collects news articles from different sources and puts them together in such a way to model an end result. It's more of a blog than a news site.
You can come here just because you like the type of articles that are found here or you can come to read my entries regarding the daily colllection of carticles.
Enjoy!
